TLYS

Tilly's, Inc.

7.12
USD
1.42%
7.12
USD
1.42%
6.87 17.80
52 weeks
52 weeks

Mkt Cap 168.40M

Shares Out 23.65M

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Tilly's plunges 22% on soft outlook, William Blair downgrade on earnings reset

Tilly's (NYSE:TLYS) reported total net sales of Q4 stood at $204.5M, a 14.9% Y/Y increase led by physical stores net sales growth stood at 24.2%; total comparable net sales, including both physical stores and e-commerce, increased by 12.5%. Net sales from e-commerce, a decrease of 5.6% Y/Y. Gross profit increased 20.8%; gross margin stood at 34.4%, an improvement of 170 basis points compared to 32.7% last year. Operating income was $17.3M or 8.5% of net sales, compared to $14.1M; net income was $12.1M, or $0.38/SHARE, compared to $8.9M, or $0.29/SHARE, last year. As of Jan.29, 2022, the company had $139.2M of cash and marketable securities and no debt outstanding compared to $141.1M as of Jan.30, 2021. Through Mar. 6, 2022, the company's FY22 first quarter total comparable net sales, including both physical stores and e-commerce, increased by 10.4% compared to the comparable period of 2021 with an increase in net sales from physical stores of 14% and a decrease from e-commerce net sales of (1.3)%. Comparable net sales for fiscal February 2022 increased by a double-digit percentage, but have been negative through Mar. 6. Outlook: Net sales will be in the range of $143 to $148M for 1Q22 which translates to a comparable net sales decrease of 10% to 13% relative to the 1Q21; EPS will be in the range of break-even to $0.05, assuming an estimated income tax rate of 27% and estimated weighted average diluted shares of 31.6M. While Tilly's price target is lowered to $16 from $21 at B. Riley, William Blair downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. Analyst Sharon Zackfia missed its lowered Q4 earnings guidance range on lower than expected gross margin; Given the trajectory of the business, the analyst "materially" reduced estimates and now projects comps of roughly down 10% for the first three quarters before improving to the negative low-single-digit range in Q4, yielding a full-year revenue decline of about 7% and an earnings decline approaching 50%. She sees little likelihood of investors regaining enthusiasm for Tilly's stock as sales and earnings likely reset this year.

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